First published as “2018
SCO Summit at Qingdao: An Indian Perspective”, Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict, New Delhi, 15 June
2018.
https://sspconline.org/opinion/2018-sco-summit-qingdao-indian-perspective-fri-06152018-1200
https://sspconline.org/opinion/2018-sco-summit-qingdao-indian-perspective-fri-06152018-1200
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) grew out of the
Shanghai Five, a grouping of China and its post-Soviet neighbours (Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) formed in 1996, in order to reduce tensions along
the approx. 7264 km long border. In 2001, when the formation of SCO was
announced, the geopolitical situation had changed, as North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) expanded eastwards, incorporating former Soviet allies of
the Warsaw Pact and used military force in former Yugoslavia, in the name of
‘humanitarian intervention’, despite opposition of Russia and China. Since
then, SCO has functioned as a counterweight to NATO in the Eurasian region,
including security, counterterrorism, energy and economic issues in its agenda.
It has also expanded, with India and Pakistan as full members in 2017 (Uzbekistan
was founding member in 2001) and four other countries (Mongolia, Iran,
Afghanistan and Belarus) as observers.
The 18th meeting of SCO was held at Qingdao,
Shandong, China on 9-10 June this year (2018). After the inauguration of the
new United States (US) administration of President Donald Trump in 2017, the
commitment of US to the ‘liberal international order’ seems uncertain. The
foreign policy seems to be unpredictable, contradictory and incomprehensible,
worrying friends as well as adversaries. The SCO meeting assumes lot of significance
in this context, because one of the goals of SCO is to establish a multipolar
international order, for which weakening of ‘American hegemony’ on security
alliances, international economic institutions and other hard and soft power
resources is necessary. SCO can take advantage of Trump’s policies by
developing partnerships with estranged US allies and gaining leverage on many
important issues.
The position of India, a new member, is peculiar. On one
hand, India has a broad consensus with Russia and China on the multipolar
international order, trade and environment policies, non-interference in
domestic affairs of sovereign states by outside powers and independent foreign
policy. On the other hand, India has strong relations with US and allies for
balance of power in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ against a rising China. Besides, India also
has bilateral disputes with China on border, trade deficit and China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) that violates India’s sovereign territory in Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir (POK). The dispute over CPEC was on full display at Qingdao,
as India refused to endorse the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which CPEC
is a part, in the joint declaration, which all other SCO members did. On the
issue of terrorism also, India has issues with China, since Pakistan, the
closest strategic ally and ‘all-weather friend’ of China, harbours, trains and
funds terrorists operating in India, especially within the state of Jammu and
Kashmir. China refuses to criticise Pakistan. Instead, it considers the
peaceful and democratic Tibetan refugees and their spiritual leader Dalai Lama
as one of the practitioners of the ‘three evils’ and pressurises India to
restrict their activities in India.[i]
Despite these disagreements between China and India, the SCO
Summit has achieved success on a number of issues. The Qingdao Declaration
approved ‘A Plan of Action for 2018-2022 to implement the Treaty on Long-Term
Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation between SCO Member States’.[ii]
It also advocated ‘settlement of crises in Afghanistan, Syria, the Middle East
and the Korean Peninsula’ according to international law and ‘implementation of
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear programme’.[iii]
There is a clear departure from the US position, especially in Syria and Iran.
Even India has common strategic interests with Iran, on supply of energy
resources, development of the Chabahar Port and linking it with Afghanistan and
Central Asia, North-South Transport Corridor, linking Mumbai and St. Petersburg
and opposition to Taliban in Afghanistan. The Trump administration’s withdrawal
from the Iran nuclear deal provides an opportunity for SCO to find common ground
with the European Union (EU). It will be in India’s advantage if sanctions are
lifted against Iran.
On security and counterterrorism, the Qingdao Declaration reiterated
SCO’s commitment to combating ‘terrorism, separatism and extremism’,
strengthening Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) and support for UN
Comprehensive Convention against International Terrorism and Code of Conduct to
Achieve a World Free of Terrorism. India could not get anything specific on
cross-border terrorism sponsored by Pakistan, which is unlikely from SCO now
that Pakistan is also a full member. It will be interesting to see in future
how SCO deals with separatist movement in Jammu and Kashmir with both India and
Pakistan as members. It will be an opportunity for India to get support from
SCO on Jammu and Kashmir, based on the latter’s definition of ‘three evils’ as
terrorism, separatism and extremism.
Besides, there were many agreements related to trade,
environment, health, education and other socioeconomic issues, including a
desire for cooperation to establish Development Bank of the SCO and the SCO
Development Fund. Already, with the leadership of China and participation of
both India and Russia, two banks, New Development Bank (NDB) and Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), have been established. SCO bank would
further strengthen the alternative economic mechanism against Bretton Woods
Institutions, led by US. Only on BRI, India has dissented as it violates
India’s territorial integrity in Jammu and Kashmir. The CPEC part of BRI
violates SCO’s own principle against ‘any act intended to violate territorial
integrity of a State including by annexation of any part of its territory’.[iv]
Thus, it will be wise on the part of China to respect
India’s territorial integrity in Jammu and Kashmir and also contain Pakistan’s
cross-border terrorism, ensuring India’s support for China’s leadership in
regional organisations, such as SCO and BRICS and participation in BRI. India,
based on its strategic interests, needs to maintain balanced relations with the
great powers, US, China and Russia and not commit to any power bloc. Prime
Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomacy has been deft, maintaining friendly
relations with the great powers and working together on areas of mutual
interest, without compromising India’s commitment to its sovereignty,
territorial integrity and fight against terrorism.
[i] Three evils, according to
SCO, are terrorism, separatism and extremism.
[ii] Information Report
following the Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation Member States (Qingdao, 9-10 June 2018).
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Article 1 of the Shanghai
Convention on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism (15 June 2001).
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